I also think one needs to provide a rationale for why one’s crystal ball says what it says. I think pundits should make predictions based on data, which is important on experience, which can provide insight and by gut, which is born of the first two. (I know no one feels sorry for me at all.) Here I go again, half a league onward, into the valley of death - or at least the abyss of uncertainty. I remind myself and my readers of all of this because I like to think I know more about Nevada elections than or on Twitter, but this year, maybe Bill and Some Guy could do better. And in 2010, while the national conventional wisdom said Harry Reid was as likely to win as a skyscraper appearing in Searchlight, I said he would. I predicted the blue wave of 2016 and the red wave of 2014, although I missed how two heavily favored Democrats would lose, too. I was prescient in 2018 in foretelling Jacky Rosen’s Senate ascent and Steve Sisolak’s gubernatorial win, among a host of other bullseyes. I was correct in 2020 about Donald Trump losing Nevada and even foretold of costly Democratic legislative losses - the election denier cabal has never explained how THAT happened two years ago. ![]() This practice has been, for the most part, an oracular triumph. I engage in this Proustian exercise to make myself feel better as I make election predictions, not shirking from my annual tradition, in the most puzzling and difficult year since I began. ![]() ![]() Let me start this biennial venture into brave foolishness with a remembrance of things past.
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